KAZAKHSTAN'S POWER SYSTEM UNDER GEOPOLITICAL TRANSFORMATION: RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIAL, DIGITAL GRID MODERNISATION, AND CHINA–KAZAKHSTAN COOPERATION WITHIN THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE

Abstract

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the transformation of Kazakhstan's Unified Power System (UPS) under the concurrent pressures of post-Soviet infrastructure obsolescence, accelerated decarbonisation, and the fundamental restructuring of Eurasian energy corridors following the geopolitical shifts of 2022. Drawing on statistical data from JSC KEGOC, the Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan, the International Energy Agency (IEA), the Asian Development Bank (ADB), and leading Chinese research sources including State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC) and China's National Energy Administration (NEA), the study conducts a multi-dimensional analysis of three interconnected challenges: (1) the digital modernisation of Kazakhstan's National Electric Grid through SCADA/EMS deployment, automated commercial electricity metering (ACEM), and transition to Smart Grid architecture, benchmarked against China's SGCC modernisation experience; (2) the systematic assessment of Kazakhstan's renewable energy resource base, with emphasis on solar photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP) technologies, including a regional potential analysis across five geographic zones; and (3) the strategic evaluation of China–Kazakhstan energy cooperation within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as a mechanism for technology localisation, value chain development, and green electricity export. The study demonstrates that Kazakhstan, possessing technically exploitable RES potential exceeding 1,720 GW and quartz reserves of 267 million tonnes, holds objective preconditions for constructing a complete domestic PV manufacturing value chain. Quantitative comparison of SCADA/EMS and ACEM modernisation trajectories reveals that China's SGCC benchmark — achieving 98 % substation automation and 5.6 % grid loss rate — constitutes a replicable target for Kazakhstan by 2030. Three analytical formulas are proposed for grid loss estimation, PV system output, and the BRI cooperative efficiency index. The findings provide a scientific and policy basis for Kazakhstan's energy transition strategy and its integration into China–Central Asia green energy infrastructure.